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Mexico national football team
CONCACAF Gold Cup | Quarter-Finals
Jul 25, 2021 at 3am UK
 
Honduras national football team

Mexico
3 - 0
Honduras

Funes Mori (26'), dos Santos (31'), Pineda (38')
Gallardo (84')
FT(HT: 3-0)

Acosta (35'), Flores (58'), Garcia (60'), Fabricio Rojas Lazo (89')

Preview: Mexico vs. Honduras - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's CONCACAF Gold Cup clash between Mexico and Honduras, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Honduras are looking to advance to the semi-finals of the Gold Cup for the first time since 2013 when they face the defending champions Mexico on Saturday at State Farm Stadium.

El Tri blanked El Salvador 1-0 to capture Group A with seven points, while La H dropped a 2-0 decision to Qatar to finish second in Group D with six points.


Match preview

Mexico defender Cesar Jasib Montes Castro celebrates his goal on July 1, 2021© Reuters

Following their opening three matches at this tournament, it comes as no surprise that the Mexicans are into the knockout phase of this competition yet again.

Gerardo Martino had to deal with an all-out defensive approach from their first two opponents as the Soca Warriors and the Guatemalans employed a back five, focusing on shutting down the Mexican attack.

That tactic seemed to work effectively at times, but perhaps only because the reigning Gold Cup champions came up against two hot goalkeepers, as Marvin Phillip stopped seven shots in the opener for Trinidad and Tobago and El Salvador keeper Mario Gonzalez made five terrific stops in their final group game.

The dynamic Mexicans had their share of chances in the group stage, but they rarely took advantage, scoring only four goals, the fewest they have accumulated in the opening phase since notching four in their first three games of the 2007 Gold Cup when they finished second in Group C behind Honduras on goal difference.

They may not have found the back of the net as much as we would have expected, but El Tri have done a masterful job of limiting their opponents' chances, failing to concede a goal now in six consecutive fixtures, allowing only three shots on target so far in this tournament.

Mexico know better than anyone how much tougher this competition gets the further you progress, and it will not be easy to break down a well organized side like Honduras, who held them to zero shots on target in a friendly back in June, which was the first time the Mexicans failed to register a shot on goal in a match since drawing Panama 0-0 in a World Cup qualifier back in 2016.

Honduras forward Alberth Elis (7) controls the ball in the second half against the United States during the semifinals of the 2021 CONCACAF Nations League soccer series at Empower Field at Mile High on June 4, 2021© Reuters

Even though the Hondurans finished second in their group, Fabian Coito will be pleased with how well his side performed against some strong teams.

The blend of youth and experience set the tone in their opener, as they scored on all four of their shots on target against Grenada before notching another three goals and outlasting Panama 3-2.

In their final match with Qatar, they failed to get a single shot on target despite having 59% of the possession.

If La H are to unseat the defending champions, they will need to be a lot more clinical in the final third than in some of their previous matches versus the Mexicans, having gone goalless in six of their last seven fixtures against them.

Incredibly, Honduras held Mexico without a shot on target in their final friendly before this tournament began despite having only 29% possession.

Los Catrachos are unbeaten in their last two fixtures with El Tri, but history tells us that a Honduras victory this weekend could be hard to come by, given that the Mexicans have never gone winless in three consecutive fixtures against them.

Mexico CONCACAF Gold Cup form:
  • D
  • W
  • W

Mexico form (all competitions):
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • W

Honduras CONCACAF Gold Cup form:
  • W
  • W
  • L

Honduras form (all competitions):
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • L



Team News

Mexico head coach Gerardo Martino pictured in September, 2019© Reuters

Mexican keeper Alfredo Talavera has four consecutive clean sheets, although the 38-year-old has rarely been called into action, having to make a mere three saves in that span.

Right-back Luis Rodriguez, who has been solid at the back, scored only his second international goal in their victory over El Salvador, while Martino made one change to the back four against La Selecta, with Hector Moreno starting in central defence instead of Nestor Araujo.

The lack of goals for Mexico could be due to some key injuries, as the man voted the best player at this competition in 2019, Raul Jimenez, is out with a concussion, while they also lost Hirving Lozano to a concussion in their opener.

Centre-back Kevin Alvarez has earned a lot of valuable international experience at this tournament, with the 24-year-old starting all three matches so far alongside veteran defender Maynor Figueroa, the most capped player in the history of Honduran football.

After scoring the opening goal for his team at this competition, striker Jerry Bengtson has begun their last two fixtures on the bench.

Left-back Diego Rodriguez moved into an attacking midfield role in their match against Qatar with Johnny Leveron taking his spot at full-back, while Jhow Benavidez made his first start of the competition on Tuesday with veteran Boniek Garcia coming on as a second-half substitute.

Mexico possible starting lineup:
Talavera; L. Rodriguez, Salcedo, Araujo, Gallardo; Gutierrez, Alvarez, Herrera; Pineda, Funes Mori, Corona

Honduras possible starting lineup:
Lopez; Crisanto, Alvarez, Figueroa, Leveron; Flores, Acosta, Garcia, Martinez; Bengtson, Quioto


SM words green background

We say: Mexico 2-0 Honduras

The Mexicans had trouble finding the back of the net in the group stage, but aside from a few anxious moments against El Salvador, they have rarely looked like conceding a goal, plus they have the experience of knowing they have not lost a Gold Cup quarter-final since 2005.

Honduras have played the Mexicans tough lately, but they have struggled to score against them at this tournament, going goalless in three of their five Gold Cup fixtures against them and losing their previous two games.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:curl



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mexico win with a probability of 60.5%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for Honduras had a probability of 14.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mexico win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.86%) and 2-1 (8.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (11.32%), while for a Honduras win it was 0-1 (6.95%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mexico would win this match.


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Group A

TeamPWDLPTS
1 United States USA32107
2Jamaica32107
3Trin. & Tob.31023
4 Saint Kitts and Nevis flag Saint Kitts30030

Group B

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Mexico Mexico32016
2 Qatar Qatar31114
3 Honduras flag Honduras31114
4Haiti31023

Group C

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Panama flag Panama32107
2 Costa Rica flag Costa Rica31114
3Martinique31023
4El Salvador30212

Group D

TeamPWDLPTS
1Guatemala32107
2 Canada Canada31205
3Guadeloupe31114
4 Cuba Cuba30030


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