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Mainz logo
Bundesliga | Gameweek 17
Jan 19, 2021 at 7.30pm UK
Coface Arena
Wolfsburg

Mainz 05
0 - 2
Wolfsburg


Boetius (57')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Bialek (65'), Weghorst (79')
Philipp (53'), Guilavogui (90+2')

Preview: Mainz 05 vs. Wolfsburg - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Bundesliga clash between Mainz 05 and Wolfsburg, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Mainz 05 entertain Wolfsburg in the Bundesliga on Tuesday, with the hosts boosted by moving off the foot of the table with an excellent 1-1 draw at Borussia Dortmund on Saturday.

Wolfsburg, meanwhile, failed to close the gap to Dortmund in fourth after drawing 2-2 at home to RB Leipzig.


Match preview

Mainz 05's Levin Oztunali celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates against Borussia Dortmund on January 16, 2021© Reuters

Despite losing 2-0 at home to Eintracht Frankfurt in his first game in charge, there were undoubtedly positive signs for Bo Svensson to take from the second half of that match.

Paying great respect to Dortmund's array of superb attackers, Svensson switched to a back five ahead of the trip to BVB, with Mainz looking more secure defensively as a result.

Levin Oztunali, starting from a right wing-back position, marked his first start since returning from injury by firing the visitors into a surprise lead prior to the hour mark, with Svensson's side holding on for a tremendous point which moved them back above Schalke after Thomas Meunier's 73rd-mintue equaliser.

His side will need to be just as defensively compact against the in-form Wolves on Tuesday, but may find chances easier to come by in transition.

VfL Wolfsburg's Wout Weghorst celebrates scoring their first goal with Paulo Otavio on January 16, 2021© Reuters

Indeed, while Wolfsburg continue to please the eye, their defence has suffered with illness and injury in recent matches, with Oliver Glasner's side conceding two goals in each of their last three Bundesliga games.

Drawing against Leipzig can never be considered a disappointing result, though, even if the Wolves did earn themselves a one-goal cushion at the half-time interval after Renato Steffen and Wout Weghorst's strikes overturned Nordi Mukiele's fourth-minute opener.

However, Willi Orban levelled the proceedings nine minutes after the break, with Wolfsburg successfully hanging on for a point after Leipzig controlled the game thereafter.

Having faced fellow top 10 sides in their last six league games, Glasner will be pleased to face a side towards the bottom of the table, but equally will be guarding against any form of complacency in an attempt to ensure his side get back to winning ways.

Mainz 05 Bundesliga form: LDLLLD
Mainz 05 form (all competitions): DLLLLD

Wolfsburg Bundesliga form: WLWLDD
Wolfsburg form (all competitions): LWWLDD


Team News

Wolfsburg defender Jerome Roussillon pictured in July 2019© Reuters

Mainz will not have Edmilson Fernandes available for the visit Wolfsburg due to COVID-19, while Pierre Kunde is ruled out through injury.

Otherwise, Svensson appears to have a clean bill of health to choose from, with top goalscorer Jean-Phillipe Mateta itching for a start having been an unused substitute in the draw at Dortmund.

Wolfsburg, meanwhile, will welcome Maximilian Arnold back to the squad after the midfielder served a one-game suspension in the draw against Leipzig.

Jeffrey Bruma, Marin Pongracic and Jerome Roussillon are ruled out from the trip to Mainz with injury.

Mainz 05 possible starting lineup:
Zentner; Oztunali, Niakhate, Bell, Hack, Mwene; Latza, Barreiro, Boetius; Quaison, Mateta

Wolfsburg possible starting lineup:
Casteels; Mbabu, Lacroix, Brooks, Otavio; Schlager, Arnold; Brekalo, Gerhardt, Steffen; Weghorst


SM words green background

We say: Mainz 05 1-2 Wolfsburg

We can envisage Wolfsburg having too much firepower for Mainz, but it should be a closely-fought affair.

Wolfsburg can move level on points with Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen in the Champions League qualification places, though, so there is plenty of motivation for both sides.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data


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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wolfsburg win with a probability of 50.35%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 25.84% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Wolfsburg win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.61%) and 0-2 (8.26%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 2-1 (6.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.19%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Wolfsburg would win this match.


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RB Leipzig's Willi Orban celebrates scoring their second goal against Wolfsburg on January 16, 2021
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Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen26224066184870
2Bayern MunichBayern26193478314760
3Stuttgart26182660312956
4Borussia DortmundDortmund26148453322150
5RB Leipzig26154760322849
6Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt26101064235740
7Augsburg269894342135
8Hoffenheim2696114450-633
9Freiburg2696113648-1233
10Werder Bremen2686123541-630
11Heidenheim2678113544-929
12Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach26610104650-428
13Union BerlinUnion Berlin2684142542-1728
14Wolfsburg2667133144-1325
15VfL BochumVfL Bochum26510113054-2425
16Mainz 05Mainz26310132246-2419
17FC Koln2639142047-2718
18SV Darmstadt 98Darmstadt2627172665-3913


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