Two Bundesliga sides positioned in the bottom half of the table will do battle on Friday night, as Mainz 05 welcome Augsburg to the MEWA Arena.
The hosts head into this encounter after suffering a 3-1 defeat against Borussia Dortmund last weekend, while the visitors played out a 1-1 draw against strugglers Arminia Bielefeld.
Match preview
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After five league matches, Mainz 05 supporters would have been pleased to see their team positioned in fifth place, just three points off the summit and with 10 points on the board.
However since then, Bo Svensson's side have suffered three successive defeats, which has seen them slip down to 11th place – a mid-table position they have become accustomed to, having finished between 12th and 15th in each of the last five campaigns.
A run of defeats is never good for any side, though losing to Bayer Leverkusen, Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund, three teams who finished inside the Bundesliga's top seven last season, was arguably expected for the 05ers on paper, so Svensson should not feel too disappointed at this stage.
Aside from their recent defeats, Mainz have shown resilience in defence so far this term, conceding only eight goals from as many league matches; only Freiburg have conceded fewer.
The 05ers, however, have struggled to keep the ball out of the back of the net in recent encounters against Augsburg, conceding in each of their last nine meetings and winning only once in the process.
Mainz seem to look stronger this time around and they should be confident of claiming something against Friday's opponents, who are struggling below them in the table.
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Augsburg head coach Markus Weinzierl was hoping that his side could build on their 1-0 victory over Borussia Monchengladbach last month, however this triumph remains their only win so far this campaign.
The Fuggerstadter suffered successive away defeats against Freiburg and Dortmund, before playing out a disappointing draw on Sunday against Arminia, who sit one place below them in the relegation zone.
Former West Ham United defender Reece Oxford had given the hosts the lead in the 19th minute, however Jacob Laursen equalised 13 minutes from time to ensure the visitors came away with a point.
Augsburg have slipped down into the relegation playoff position after VfL Bochum claimed all three points last weekend to leapfrog them in the table.
Weinzierl's men head into Friday's fixture after failing to win any of their last 10 Bundesliga away games, losing eight in the process.
However, they have a much stronger record against Mainz, winning eight of their last nine meetings across all competitions, including each of the last five in the Bundesliga, so their spirits should be high when they take to the field at the MEWA Arena.
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Team News
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Mainz defender Jeremiah St Juste and striker Adam Szalai have both been ruled out for several weeks with respective shoulder and knee injuries.
Midfielder Dominik Kohr missed the defeat against Dortmund due to suspension, but is available to feature on Friday and could come into the starting lineup at the expense of Anton Stach.
Jonathan Burkardt, who is the club's top goalscorer so far this term with four strikes to his name, was dropped to the bench last weekend, however the 21-year-old is expected to start up front ahead of either Karim Onisiwo or Marcus Ingvartsen.
As for Augsburg, Fredrik Jensen and Niklas Dorsch will both be assessed ahead of kickoff after suffering with illness, however Florian Niederlechner and Felix Uduokhai remain out with muscle injuries.
Weinziel is expected to stick with a 3-5-2 formation, which will likely see Daniel Caligiuri and Mads Pedersen continue as the wing-backs.
Forward Andre Hahn, who scored three goals in two Bundesliga matches against Mainz last season, is set to keep his place up front alongside either Andi Zeqiri or Sergio Cordova.
Mainz 05 possible starting lineup:
Zentner; Widmer, Bell, Niakhate; Tauer, Barreiro, Kohr, Lucoqui; Boetius, Ingvartsen; Burkardt
Augsburg possible starting lineup:
Gikiewicz; Gumny, Gouweleeuw, Oxford; Caligiuri, Maier, Strobl, Vargas, Pedersen; Hahn, Zeqiri
We say: Mainz 05 1-1 Augsburg
Both Mainz and Augsburg will fancy their chances of claiming all three points on Friday, as they aim to get back on track in the Bundesliga.
None of the last 12 matches across all competitions between these two sides has ended as a draw, but with a tight encounter on the cards, we can see the spoils being shared at the MEWA Arena this time around.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 46.32%. A draw had a probability of 26.9% and a win for Augsburg had a probability of 26.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.92%) and 2-0 (8.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.67%), while for an Augsburg win it was 0-1 (9%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mainz 05 would win this match.
