Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 47.92%. A win for Famalicao had a probability of 27.35% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.43%) and 0-2 (8.17%). The likeliest Famalicao win was 1-0 (7.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.71%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
Result | ||
Famalicao | Draw | Porto |
27.35% ( 0.83) | 24.73% ( -0.24) | 47.92% ( -0.59) |
Both teams to score 54.76% ( 1.44) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
52.16% ( 1.58) | 47.83% ( -1.58) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.98% ( 1.44) | 70.02% ( -1.43) |
Famalicao Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.46% ( 1.49) | 31.54% ( -1.48) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
32.07% ( 1.68) | 67.93% ( -1.68) |
Porto Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.99% ( 0.38) | 20.01% ( -0.38) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
47.79% ( 0.61) | 52.21% ( -0.61) |
Score Analysis |
Famalicao | Draw | Porto |
1-0 @ 7.28% ( -0.18) 2-1 @ 6.76% ( 0.19) 2-0 @ 4.2% ( 0.07) 3-1 @ 2.6% ( 0.17) 3-2 @ 2.09% ( 0.16) 3-0 @ 1.62% ( 0.09) Other @ 2.79% Total : 27.35% | 1-1 @ 11.71% ( -0.15) 0-0 @ 6.31% ( -0.42) 2-2 @ 5.44% ( 0.21) 3-3 @ 1.12% ( 0.1) Other @ 0.14% Total : 24.72% | 0-1 @ 10.15% ( -0.55) 1-2 @ 9.43% ( -0) 0-2 @ 8.17% ( -0.34) 1-3 @ 5.06% ( 0.06) 0-3 @ 4.38% ( -0.13) 2-3 @ 2.92% ( 0.15) 1-4 @ 2.03% ( 0.05) 0-4 @ 1.76% ( -0.03) 2-4 @ 1.17% ( 0.07) Other @ 2.85% Total : 47.92% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 96 | 29 | 67 | 90 |
2 | Benfica | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 77 | 28 | 49 | 80 |
3 | Porto | 34 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 63 | 27 | 36 | 72 |
4 | Braga | 34 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 71 | 50 | 21 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 52 | 38 | 14 | 63 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 55 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 54 | 50 | 4 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 42 |
9 | Casa Pia | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 38 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 37 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 6 | 19 | 9 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 37 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 42 | 52 | -10 | 36 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 33 |
14 | Estrela Amadora | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 33 | 53 | -20 | 33 |
15 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 32 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 39 | 72 | -33 | 32 |
R | Vizela | 34 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 36 | 66 | -30 | 26 |
R | ChavesChaves | 34 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 31 | 72 | -41 | 23 |
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