MX23RW : Friday, March 29 07:01:14| >> :600:552739:552739:
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Jamaica national football team
World Cup Qualifying - North Central America | Third Round
Jan 28, 2022 at 12am UK
Independence Park
Mexico national football team

Jamaica
1 - 2
Mexico

Johnson (50')
Lowe (45+2')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Martin (81'), Vega (83')

Preview: Jamaica vs. Mexico - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Friday's World Cup Qualifying - North Central America clash between Jamaica and Mexico, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Jamaica will aim to extend their unbeaten World Cup 2022 qualifying run to five games when they play host to Mexico on Thursday.

Meanwhile, Mexico will be looking to get their campaign back on track after suffering consecutive defeats in their previous two qualifying games.


Match preview

Jamaica's Shamar Nicholson celebrates scoring their first goal against Mexico on September 2, 2021© Reuters

Despite avoiding defeat in their last four World Cup qualifiers, Jamaica are still seven points adrift of the playoff place, and require a large haul of points from their last six games if they are to keep their hopes of a second World Cup appearance alive.

The Reggae Boyz have drawn three of their last four competitive games, while both of their previous two qualifying games have finished 1-1.

In November, Jamaica followed an away draw against El Salvador with a superb point at home against the United States after Michail Antonio struck to cancel out Timothy Weah's opener.

Jamaica's sole victory so far in the third round of qualifying took place in Honduras, and if they are to mount a challenge to the top four, they need to start picking up wins at home, especially as four of their final six fixtures will take place on home turf.

Only Honduras have conceded more goals than Jamaica, but after conceding two goals in their previous four competitive fixtures, the Reggae Boyz will be hoping to continue their newfound defensive solidity on Thursday.

Mexico defender Carlos Salcedo in action in July 2021.© Reuters

Meanwhile, Mexico's quest to qualify for an eighth successive World Cup has hit the rocks in recent games after suffering back-to-back defeats in November.

After falling to a 2-0 away defeat in the United States, they lost 2-1 against Canada in their previous competitive fixture, with Cyle Larin grabbing a brace to sink El Tri despite Hector Herrera's goal.

Gerardo Martino's side sit in the top three by virtue of a better goal difference over Panama, who are currently in the one and only playoff place.

El Tri will be confident of troubling the Jamaica defence having scored in seven of their eight World Cup Qualifiers.

Thursday's fixture offers Mexico the chance to claim a qualifying double over the Reggae Boyz after clinching a dramatic 2-1 victory in the reverse fixture thanks to Henry Martin's 89th-minute winner.

Jamaica World Cup Qualifying - North Central America form:
  • D
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • D
  • D

Jamaica form (all competitions):
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • D
  • D
  • L

Mexico World Cup Qualifying - North Central America form:
  • D
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • L

Mexico form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • D



Team News

Luis Romo of Mexico celebrates scoring their second goal with teammates on July 31, 2021© Reuters

Jamaica are missing the services of Leon Bailey, who is currently absent due to injury.

After scoring his first two goals for Jamaica in November, Antonio will be one of the home side's main goal threats on Thursday.

Paul Hall has a number of options in defence and could opt to go with a centre-back pairing of Ethan Pinnock and Liam Moore.

As for Mexico, Raul Jimenez will be unavailable for the Jamaica clash due to a calf injury, which could present Rogelio Funes Mori with a starting opportunity.

Hirving Lozano will also be absent for the visitors, with the Napoli man set to serve a one-match suspension after receiving his second yellow card of the qualifying campaign against Canada.

With Jimenez and Lozano absent, Martino is likely to choose a front three made up of Jesus Corona, Alexis Vega and Funes Mori.

Jamaica possible starting lineup:
Blake; Brown, Moore, Pinnock, Lawrence; Stewart, Williams, Walker; Decordova-Reid, Flemmings, Antonio

Mexico possible starting lineup:
Ochoa; Rodriguez, Araujo, Vasquez, Gallardo; Herrera, Alvarez, Pineda; Corona, Vega, Funes Mori


SM words green background

We say: Jamaica 1-1 Mexico

Mexico are without the services of a couple of key players and that could play into the hands of a Jamaican side in need of points, but with three of their last four competitive matches ending level, we think that the Reggae Boyz may have to settle for another draw on Thursday.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mexico win with a probability of 42.76%. A win for Jamaica had a probability of 30.73% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mexico win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.79%) and 0-2 (7.71%). The likeliest Jamaica win was 1-0 (9.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mexico would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Jamaica vs Mexico

Jamaica
17.4%
Draw
19.6%
Mexico
63.0%
92
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