In search of a third consecutive league win, Fortuna Sittard visit the Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadium on Sunday to face off against Groningen.
Three places and eight points currently separate the sides in the Eredivisie table, so this has all the makings of an even contest.
Match preview
In their game against Feyenoord on Wednesday, Groningen were held to a draw for the second time in three days following a 1-1 draw against Heerenveen on Sunday.
Danny Buijs's men were on the back foot for most of the game, but they held on to secure a point which keeps them firmly in the race for fourth spot.
Sergio Padt was excellent in goal, making a host of crucial saves to keep his side in the game on a day when they were uncharacteristically fragile at the back.
With four of the five teams above them set to be involved in games against one another this weekend, Trots van het Noorden have the chance to make up some ground on whoever drops points.
A win for Sunday's hosts would also complete a league double over their visitors, who they beat 3-1 in October's reverse fixture.
Fortuna Sittard's 2-0 win over ADO Den Haag on Saturday was their second in a row, and the fourth in the last five games.
Sebastian Polter was on the scoresheet for the second game running, and he is now up to eight league goals in his debut season in Dutch football.
Sjors Ultee's men have often had an all-or-nothing approach to games since the turn of the year, so it is no surprise that none of their nine league games in 2021 has ended in a draw.
In stark contrast to last season, Fortunezen are not involved in a relegation scrap this time around, and they are well placed to record their highest league finish since regaining promotion in 2018.
Groningen Eredivisie form: LWLWDD
Fortuna Sittard Eredivisie form: LWWLWW
Team News
Groningen's Azor Matusiwa is ruled out of the game with a damaged knee which he sustained against Vitesse, but he is not far off a return to action.
The hosts could be set to welcome back Patrick Joosten, who is in line to make his comeback from injury, following his recovery from an ankle problem.
Fortuna are set to be without Yanick van Osch for the game after he pulled up with a shoulder problem in the final seven minutes against Den Haag.
Alexei Koselev came on to replace him in the aforementioned match, and he is in line for his first league start since gameweek six.
Groningen possible starting lineup:
Padt; Gudmundsson, Van Hintum, Itakura, Angel Leal; Lundqvist, Van Kaam, Da Cruz; Suslov, Strand Larsen, El Hankouri
Fortuna Sittard possible starting lineup:
Koselev; Cox, Tirpan, Angha, Rota; Hansson, Rienstra, Tekie, Semedo; Seuntjens, Flemming
We say: Groningen 2-1 Fortuna Sittard
Groningen have often had the better of this fixture in recent meetings, and we fancy them to keep that trend going against a Fortuna side who should push them all the way.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Groningen win with a probability of 51.22%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 24.01%.
The most likely scoreline for a Groningen win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.55%) and 2-0 (9.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.78%), while for a Fortuna Sittard win it was 0-1 (7.26%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Groningen in this match.
