MX23RW : Friday, March 29 10:59:34| >> :120:84012:84012:
[monks data]
Derby logo
Championship | Gameweek 8
Oct 28, 2020 at 7.45pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Cardiff City logo

Derby
1 - 1
Cardiff

Waghorn (24')
Jozwiak (82'), Shinnie (86'), te Wierik (90')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Moore (77')
Morrison (82'), Ojo (90+1'), Bacuna (90+3')

Preview: Derby County vs. Cardiff City - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Championship clash between Derby County and Cardiff City, including predictions and team news.

Derby County will be hoping to build on a promising performance against Nottingham Forest when they host Cardiff City in the Championship on Wednesday evening.

It finished 1-1 in Friday's East Midlands clash, with the Rams unlucky not to claim all three points at the City Ground.


Match preview

Derby County's Martyn Waghorn celebrates scoring against Nottingham Forest in the Championship on October 23, 2020© Reuters

Phillip Cocu's position as Derby manager was beginning to be brought into question before the draw against Forest, but the pressure seems to have eased for now with owner Mel Morris publicly backing the Dutchman.

An excellent free-kick from Martyn Waghorn gave the Rams a first-half lead before Lyle Taylor equalised after the break, and then Kamil Jozwiak thought he had scored the winner but teammate Waghorn was judged to be offside and blocking Brice Samba's vision.

Having seen his team put in their best performance of the season, Cocu will hope that the game is a turning point as reports linking Wayne Rooney with the managerial role simply will not go away.

The reality is that Derby still only have four points from a possible 21 and sit in the Championship's relegation zone. Only Wycombe Wanderers have scored fewer than their tally of three goals.

Derby have lost all three of their games at Pride Park so far – failing to score and conceding seven, giving them the worst home record in the Championship. It's fair to say Cocu is fortunate that supporters have not been allowed in to watch.

Cardiff City's Harry Wilson celebrates scoring against Bournemouth in the Championship on October 21, 2020© Reuters

They host a Cardiff side yet to lose on the road this season, with both of the Bluebirds' wins so far coming on their travels at Nottingham Forest and Preston North End.

It has not quite been the start to the campaign that Neil Harris would have wanted as he aims to build on their fifth place finish in 2019-20.

They drew 1-1 against former boss Neil Warnock and his Middlesbrough side on Saturday, but Harris was left frustrated by his team's lack of quality in the final third as just three of their 17 shots went on target.

That left Cardiff in 15th position, but still only three points below the playoffs, epitomising the close nature of the Championship at this early stage of the season.

For their trip to Derby, Harris may tell his team to kick the ball long as much as possible, with the Bluebirds averaging the highest number of aerial duels won per game in the Championship (35) and the Rams averaging the lowest (15.3).

Derby County Championship form: LLWLLD

Cardiff City Championship form: WLDWDD


Team News

Derby County manager Phillip Cocu pictured on October 20, 2020© Reuters

Phillip Cocu could name an unchanged team as he seeks to keep momentum going after the performance against Forest.

Martyn Waghorn's return to fitness has been a huge boost for Derby as he provides the side with a true focal point upfront.

Wayne Rooney is still self-isolating so will once again be absent from the squad.

Jordi Osei-Tutu hobbled off in Cardiff's draw with Middlesbrough so is a doubt for Wednesday night.

With no other recognised right-backs in the squad, the versatile Leandro Bacuna may have to fill in on that side.

The only other Bluebirds change could come in midfield, with Marlon Pack competing with Joe Ralls for a starting place.

Derby County possible starting lineup:
Marshall; Wisdom, Davies, Clarke; Byrne, Shinnie, Knight, Buchanan; Jozwiak, Waghorn, Lawrence

Cardiff City possible starting lineup:
Smithies; Bacuna, Morrison, Nelson, Bagan; Vaulks, Pack; Ojo, Wilson, Murphy; Moore


SM words green background

We say: Derby County 1-1 Cardiff City

Despite possessing some very dangerous attacking players, both teams have been wasteful in front of goal this season. The game should be lively with plenty of chances but could ultimately end all square – particularly as Cardiff are the division's draw specialists.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Away:data

ID:419875: cacheID:419875:1false2false3false:QQ:: from db desktop :LenBod:restore:8950:

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff City win with a probability of 41.92%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 31.19% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff City win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.64%) and 0-2 (7.65%). The likeliest Derby County win was 1-0 (9.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.75%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood.


Previews by email

Click here to get Sports Mole's daily email of previews and predictions for every major game!


Restore Data
Share this article now:
Derby County manager Phillip Cocu pictured on October 20, 2020
Read Next:
Derby manager Phillip Cocu claims linesman "stole our win" against Forest
>
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Portsmouth392411463323183
2Derby CountyDerby402461069353478
3Bolton WanderersBolton39228971432874
4Peterborough UnitedPeterborough38218974462871
5Barnsley382011770482271
6Oxford UnitedOxford Utd391891262521063
7Stevenage3917111151401162
8Lincoln CityLincoln3916131056332361
9Blackpool391791357421560
10Leyton Orient391610134444058
11Northampton TownNorthampton40158175160-953
12Wigan AthleticWigan39177155348550
13Wycombe WanderersWycombe381311145049150
14Bristol Rovers38148164857-950
15Exeter CityExeter39138183352-1947
16Charlton AthleticCharlton391015145758-145
17Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury39135212955-2644
18Reading39139175557-242
19Burton Albion39109203151-2039
20Cambridge UnitedCambridge38109193255-2339
21Port Vale3899203661-2536
22Cheltenham TownCheltenham3798203050-2035
23Fleetwood TownFleetwood39713194161-2034
24Carlisle UnitedCarlisle3959253569-3424


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
Argentina's Lionel Messi kisses the World Cup trophy after collecting the Golden Ball award on December 18, 2022Sign up for our FREE daily preview newsletter direct to your inbox!