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Derby logo
Championship | Gameweek 25
Jan 19, 2021 at 6pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Bournemouth logo

Derby
1 - 0
Bournemouth

Bielik (32')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Cook (71')

Preview: Derby County vs. Bournemouth - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Championship clash between Derby County and Bournemouth, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Derby County welcome third-placed Bournemouth to Pride Park on Tuesday evening, with Wayne Rooney searching for his first win since taking the manager's job on a permanent basis.

The Cherries will be looking to bounce back after succumbing to a surprise defeat to Luton Town last time out, which saw them lose ground on the automatic promotion places.


Match preview

Derby County manager Wayne Rooney pictured in December 2020© Reuters

A 1-0 loss at home to fellow relegation contenders Rotherham United over the weekend saw the Rams lose their third consecutive game without registering a single goal.

That result has left Derby in 23rd position in the Championship table after collecting just 19 points all season.

While Rooney's men have been fairly solid in defence throughout the current campaign, their attack has consistently let them down. Their 14-goal haul is the lowest in the second tier and has heavily contributed to their precarious position.

Former Rangers striker Martyn Waghorn found the back of the net on 12 occasions last season, but the 30-year-old has only registered two efforts this time around and has failed to find the back of the net since October.

If Derby are to drag themselves to safety, they will need the likes of Waghorn to step up and start finding the back of the net on a regular basis, starting with this midweek encounter against a free-scoring Bournemouth side.

Bournemouth manager Jason Tindall pictured on January 16, 2021© Reuters

Jason Tindall has made a good start to life at the Vitality Stadium since stepping up from his previous assistant manager role following Eddie Howe's departure in the summer.

The newly-relegated side have settled back into life in England's second tier fairly well. The South coast club are the division's second-highest scorers and look set to challenge for an instant return to the Premier League.

However, in recent weeks it has been far from plain sailing for the Cherries. Just one win in their last five league games has seen second-placed Swansea City open up a four-point gap over them while Brentford now sit just one point behind them with two games in hand.

Getting back to winning ways as soon as possible will be pivotal to Bournemouth's promotion push, and a clash with a struggling Derby side will be seen as a perfect opportunity to do just that.

Derby County Championship form: DWLWLL
Derby County form (all competitions): WLWLLL

Bournemouth Championship form: WDLWDL
Bournemouth form (all competitions): DLWWDL


Team News

Bournemouth midfielder Jefferson Lerma is shown a red card against Luton on January 16, 2021© Reuters

Rooney should have a full squad to choose from for the visit of high-flying Bournemouth.

Tom Lawrence is expected to take a place on the Derby bench after an extended absence due to an ankle injury and will give his new manager another option in attack.

Tindall will be forced to cope without Colombia international midfielder Jefferson Lerma after the 26-year-old was sent off against Luton.

That means Philip Billing could come back into the starting XI, forming the base for an exciting attack, including an in-form Dominic Solanke.

Derby County possible starting lineup:
Roos; Byrne, Wisdom, Clarke, Buchanan; Sibley, Shinnie; Waghorn, Knight, Jozwiak; Kazim-Richards

Bournemouth possible starting lineup:
Begovic; Cook, Carter-Vickers, Rico; Stacey, Billing, Cook, Smith; Brooks, Solanke, King


SM words green background

We say: Derby County 0-2 Bournemouth

Despite Bournemouth's recent struggles in the league, they should have too much quality for a Derby side struggling to find the back of the net and any sort of consistent form. It could be a comfortable victory for Tindall's men, but the Rams are capable of causing an upset on their day.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data


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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bournemouth win with a probability of 48.08%. A draw had a probability of 27.1% and a win for Derby County had a probability of 24.87%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bournemouth win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.56%) and 1-2 (8.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.63%), while for a Derby County win it was 1-0 (8.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 9% likelihood.


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Bournemouth manager Jason Tindall pictured on January 16, 2021
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Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Portsmouth392411463323183
2Derby CountyDerby402461069353478
3Bolton WanderersBolton39228971432874
4Peterborough UnitedPeterborough38218974462871
5Barnsley382011770482271
6Oxford UnitedOxford Utd391891262521063
7Stevenage3917111151401162
8Lincoln CityLincoln3916131056332361
9Blackpool391791357421560
10Leyton Orient391610134444058
11Northampton TownNorthampton40158175160-953
12Wigan AthleticWigan39177155348550
13Wycombe WanderersWycombe381311145049150
14Bristol Rovers38148164857-950
15Exeter CityExeter39138183352-1947
16Charlton AthleticCharlton391015145758-145
17Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury39135212955-2644
18Reading39139175557-242
19Burton Albion39109203151-2039
20Cambridge UnitedCambridge38109193255-2339
21Port Vale3899203661-2536
22Cheltenham TownCheltenham3798203050-2035
23Fleetwood TownFleetwood39713194161-2034
24Carlisle UnitedCarlisle3959253569-3424


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