Ceara and Bahia are locked on four points apiece heading into Wednesday's Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A clash at Arena Castelao.
The hosts drew 0-0 with Chapecoense last time out, while Bahia were beaten 1-0 at home to Internacional.
Match preview
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Ceara finished 11th in the top flight last season and are in that exact position three games into the 2021 campaign.
Guto Ferreira's men kicked off their campaign with a 3-2 win against Gremio, before losing 3-1 to Santos in their next outing.
Last weekend's stalemate with Chapecoense leaves the Black and White effectively in mid-table, but that can all change depending on results in midweek.
Bahia are three places better off than their opponents heading into this showdown by virtue of a superior goal difference.
The Tricolor also opened up their campaign with three points, seeing off Santos 3-0 in that one before drawing 3-3 with RB Bragantino and losing 1-0 to Internacional.
Edenilson scored what proved to be the only goal of the game from the penalty spot half an hour into that most recent outing for Dado Cavalcanti's charges.
Bahia beat Ceara on penalties when the sides met in May's Copa do Nordeste playoff - contested between teams in Brazil's north-east region - to win their fourth title.
That match was marred by a brawl, with players for both sides still serving a suspension.
Serie A points are on the line on Thursday, and victory for one of these sides would propel them high up the table, albeit with just a month of the campaign played.
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Team News
Ceara have a number of players either ruled out or major doubts for this match, with none of Fabinho, Felipe Baxola, Vitor Jacare or Joao Ricardo expected to feature.
Lima got the nod on the right side of attack against Chapecoense and was his side's best player, even if he ultimately could not help his team to find a breakthrough goal.
Yony Gonzalez and Pedro Naressi were brought off the bench late on in that most recent game and are pushing for recalls here.
As for Bahia, Joao Pedro is carrying an injury and there are question marks over the fitness of Paraiba Nino and Dani.
Danielzinho was preferred to Lucas Araujo in central midfield against Internacional, but Cavalcanti may make a change or two here.
Oscar Ruiz is another pushing for inclusion, possibly in place of Rodriguinho.
Ceara possible starting lineup:
Richard; Dias, Messias, Klaus, Pacheco; Sobral, Willian; Lima, Jorginho, Rick, Cleber
Bahia possible starting lineup:
Claus; Guedes, Conti, Otavio, Bahia; Thaciano, Lucca, Araujo; Rossi, Gilberto, Rodriguinho
We say: Ceara 2-2 Bahia
Both sides have an identical record after their opening three matches, and they played out a couple of tight matches in the cup just last month.
Bahia prevailed on that occasion, but we can see the points being shared in an entertaining match at Arena Castelao on Thursday.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ceara win with a probability of 41.19%. A win for Bahia had a probability of 32.66% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ceara win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.71%) and 2-0 (7.15%). The likeliest Bahia win was 0-1 (8.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.43%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood.
