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[monks data]
Canada national football team
Olympic Games Women's Football | Quarter-Finals
Jul 30, 2021 at 9am UK
Miyagi Stadium

Canada Women
0 - 0
Brazil Women


Lawrence (90+2'), Yuk Fun Riviere (115')
FT
(aet)

Eduarda Francelino da Silva (59'), Ludmila (101')
Canada Women win 4-3 on penalties

Preview: Canada Women vs. Brazil Women - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Friday's Olympic Games Women's Football clash between Canada Women and Brazil Women, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

With a semi-final spot on the line, Canada Women and Brazil Women will do battle in quarter-final action in Japan on Friday as the Tokyo 2020 Olympics Women's Football tournament knockout stage kicks off.

Canada Women advanced through a tough group in second place, booking them another difficult challenge against Brazil Women, who finished second in Group F.


Match preview

Canada coach Bev Priestman reacts on July 27, 2021© Reuters

Canada Women kicked off their Olympics campaign with a clash against host nation Japan, and a sixth-minute opener from Christine Sinclair looked to have settled the game.

However, their opponents eventually equalised in the 84th minute through Mana Iwabuchi to force Bev Priestman's side to share the points.

It did not take long for the Canadian team to record their first victory though, as they defeated Chile Women 2-1 in the following game thanks to a Janine Beckie brace, with the goals coming quickly either side of half time, and they held on for the win after Karen Araya reduced the lead to one goal with a penalty on the hour mark.

That start meant Pristman's side were almost guaranteed passage through to the final eight heading into the final group game against Great Britain Women, as they led Japan Women by three points while they were also in a strong position to qualify as one of the best third-placed sides should they be overtaken on the final day.

Any worries would not last long, as they took the lead early in the second half against a heavily-fancied Team GB side through Adriana Leon, although the game did finish level as Nichelle Prince turned the ball into her own net in the final five minutes.

While that meant they did not achieve a first-placed finish, Canada Women will be far more focused on the fact that they passed through the group and earned a place in the quarter-finals, and they will now look to record another victory to take a step towards earning a medal in this year's football tournament.

They face a particularly tough test, though, having been drawn against Brazil Women in the first knockout round.

Andressa Alves of Brazil celebrates after scoring their first goal with teammates on July 27, 2021© Reuters

The Brazilian side started their Olympic Games campaign in style by thrashing China PR Women 5-0 in Rifu in the opening group match.

Early goals from Marta and Debinha meant they were in the driving seat throughout, and Marta would go on to find the net again alongside Andressa and Beatriz in the second half to send a message out to the rest of the sides in this year's tournament.

They then faced a tougher task against group leaders Netherlands Women, who opened their group campaign with a 10-3 thrashing of Zambia Women.

While their opponents led twice thanks to a Vivianne Miedema brace, it was Pia Sundhage's side who looked set to take all three points as goals from Marta and Ludmila in quick succession saw them take a 3-2 lead with 20 minutes to go, only for Dominique Janssen to equalise for the Dutch side in the 79th minute to see the game finish 3-3.

As Canarinhas then finished with another victory, as an early Andressa goal made the difference in a 1-0 win over Zambia Women.

That meant they finished level on points with Netherlands Women, but with a far inferior goal difference, meaning they finished comfortably in second place, booking a spot in the final eight and a clash with Group E's second-placed nation.

Canada Women Olympic Games Women's Football form:
  • D
  • W
  • D

Canada Women form (all competitions):
  • W
  • D
  • D
  • D
  • W
  • D

Brazil Women Olympic Games Women's Football form:
  • W
  • D
  • W

Brazil Women form (all competitions):
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • D
  • W



Team News

Adriana Leon of Canada celebrates after scoring their first goal with teammates on July 27, 2021© Reuters

Canada Women should be led by captain Christine Sinclair, who was given a rest in the final group game ahead of the knockout stage but is set to return to the squad on Friday.

The 37-year-old forward made her 300th international cap earlier in this year's tournament, while moving further clear as the all-time top scorer in international football with her 187th goal for her country.

She should be supported in the attacking line by Janine Beckie, who hit a crucial double in their 2-1 win over Chile Women.

Kadeisha Buchanan has been a mainstay at the heart of the back four so far for Canada Women, and she should again lead the defence in the quarter-final.

Goalkeeper Stephanie Labbe returned from an injury to feature in the draw with Great Britain Women, and she will continue between the sticks.

Brazil Women have an experienced forward of their own to lead the attack in the form of 35-year-old Marta, who has hit 112 goals for her country, including 13 at the Olympic Games.

She will join the likes of Beatriz and Debinha, while Andressa will likely be a threat from the wide areas.

While Poliana came in for Erika for the final group game, Rafaelle has been a key component of the Brazilian defence for all three games so far, collecting two clean sheets.

Canada Women possible starting lineup:
Labbe; Lawrence, Buchanan, Zadorsky, Riviere; Scott, Quinn; Leon, Fleming, Beckie; Sinclair

Brazil Women possible starting lineup:
Barbara; Santos, Poliana, Rafaelle, Tamires; Andressa, Formiga, Andressinha, Marta; Beatriz, Debinha


SM words green background

We say: Canada Women 1-2 Brazil Women

While they did get through a tough group, Canada Women have not looked at their best this tournament, and often look devoid of ideas when Sinclair is not firing at her usual rate, and they come up against a side who have looked assured at the back, keeping two clean sheets as they collected seven points in the group stage.

We see the experienced Brazilian squad getting over the line on Friday and taking a major step towards earning a medal in the Women's Football competition, thanks to their quality all over the pitch.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 2.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 2.5:curl



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Canada Women win with a probability of 45.3%. A win for Brazil Women had a probability of 29.1% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Canada Women win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.15%) and 2-0 (7.94%). The likeliest Brazil Women win was 0-1 (8.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.17%).


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