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Millwall logo
EFL Cup | Third Round
Sep 23, 2020 at 7pm UK
The Den
Burnley logo

Millwall
0 - 2
Burnley

FT(HT: 0-1)
Brownhill (45'), Vydra (90+3')
Brownhill (53'), Thomas (56'), Westwood (78')

Preview: Millwall vs. Burnley - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's EFL Cup third-round tie between Millwall and Burnley, including team news and predicted lineups.

Millwall and Burnley continue their efforts in the EFL Cup on Wednesday evening when they square off at The Den.

While the home side have come through games against Crawley Town and Cheltenham Town, the visitors got the better of Sheffield United on penalties in the second round.


Match preview

Burnley boss Sean Dyche on July 5, 2020© Reuters

While Burnley suffering an away defeat at Leicester City on Sunday evening would have been expected by the majority, the absence of key men highlighted Sean Dyche's predicament with regards to the depth of his squad.

James Tarkowski, who is being linked with a move away from Turf Moor, was missing from the team, providing Jimmy Dunne with a surprise Premier League debut.

Although the 22-year-old performed admirably at the King Power Stadium, it highlighted that Burnley realistically need to be active in the transfer market over the coming weeks to again challenge for a mid-table spot.

Whether that materialises remains to be seen, but Dyche may feel that he has to use a game such as this one to hand minutes to the other academy players who featured in the squad against the Foxes.

At a time when Burnley appear far from settled, Gary Rowett will be delighted with how his players have started the new campaign in all competitions.

As well as successfully negotiating EFL Cup ties against lower-league opposition, four points and two clean sheets have come from Championship fixtures against Stoke City and Millwall respectively.

There are signs that a lack of goals may be a problem at the second tier this season, with Jed Wallace's strike at the weekend only coming courtesy of an individual error in the Millers backline.

Nevertheless, Rowett will feel that the foundations have been laid ahead of the Lions attempting to build on their near-miss with the playoffs back in July.

Millwall EFL Cup form: WW
Millwall form (all competitions): WDWW

Burnley EFL Cup form: D
Burnley form (all competitions): DL


Team News

Millwall manager Gary Rowett pictured in July 2020© Reuters

While some rotation is expected, Rowett is likely to give run-outs to some of the Millwall players who featured among the replacements at the weekend.

That should see Murray Wallace, Matt Smith and Jon Dadi Bodvarsson all come into the starting lineup.

With his side having played twice in the space of three days, Dyche will probably make changes for this tie.

Bailey Peacock-Farrell could be given an opportunity between the sticks, while Matt Lowton and Matej Vydra should come into the team.

Ashley Barnes remains out of contention despite making his return from injury in the reserves.

Millwall possible starting lineup:
Bialkowski; Romeo, Hutchinson, Cooper, Wallace; Mahoney, Woods, Leonard, Ferguson; Smith, Bodvarsson

Burnley possible starting lineup:
Peacock-Farrell; Lowton, Long, Dunne, Taylor; McNeil, Westwood, Brownhill, Pieters; Rodriguez, Vydra


SM words green background

We say: Millwall 1-1 Burnley

This games has the potential to be somewhat of a war of attrition, something which we feel will lead to the game ending in a low-scoring draw. With the belief that they have from their shootout success last week, Burnley could prevail on spot kicks.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting that both teams will score (BTTS - yes) in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.BTTS Yes:curl

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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Millwall win with a probability of 43.87%. A win for Burnley had a probability of 30.28% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Millwall win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9%) and 2-0 (7.68%). The likeliest Burnley win was 0-1 (8.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.29%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.


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Burnley boss Sean Dyche on July 5, 2020
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