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EFL Cup | Third Round
Sep 21, 2021 at 7.45pm UK
Turf Moor
Rochdale

Burnley
4 - 1
Rochdale

Rodriguez (50', 60', 62', 77')
Tarkowski (63')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Beesley (47')
O'Keeffe (63'), O'Connell (64')

Preview: Burnley vs. Rochdale - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's EFL Cup clash between Burnley and Rochdale, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Burnley will be looking to book their spot in the fourth round of the EFL Cup when they welcome League Two outfit Rochdale to Turf Moor on Tuesday night.

The home side will enter the contest off the back of a 1-0 loss to Arsenal in the Premier League on Saturday, while Rochdale played out a 1-1 draw with Mansfield Town in League Two on the same afternoon.


Match preview

Burnley manager Sean Dyche pictured on August 29, 2021© Reuters

The EFL Cup will not be regarded as a priority for Burnley this season, but Tuesday's match will be a welcome break from Premier League action, with the Clarets struggling to pick up results in the opening weeks.

Indeed, a record of one draw and four defeats from five matches has left Sean Dyche's side with a single point, and they occupy 19th position in the table, with Norwich City the only side to perform worse this term.

Burnley picked up a draw against Leeds United before the international break but have lost their last two Premier League fixtures, going down 3-1 at Everton on September 13 before suffering a 1-0 loss to Arsenal on Saturday.

Dyche's team beat Newcastle United on penalties in the second round of this season's EFL Cup to advance to round three, and they now have a brilliant chance to secure a spot in the fourth round.

Burnley famously lifted the FA Cup in 1913-14 but have never won the League Cup, and it is difficult to imagine the club taking the competition too seriously this term, particularly considering their struggles in the early stages of the campaign, with a huge league clash at home to fellow strugglers Norwich on the horizon.

Rochdale, meanwhile, will enter Tuesday's contest off the back of a 1-1 draw with Mansfield Town in League Two on Saturday, which has left them in eighth position in the table.

A return of 12 points from eight matches represents a solid start to the season, and the Dale are unbeaten in their last seven games in all competitions, recording five victories in the process.

Robbie Stockdale's side, who were relegated from League One last term, recorded a 2-0 victory over Shrewsbury Town in the second round of this season's EFL Cup, with Jake Beesley and Danny Cashman on the scoresheet.

Rochdale will view next weekend's league clash against Oldham Athletic as more important than this game, but the chance to claim a Premier League scalp in a major cup competition does not come around too often.

The fixture will be the first meeting between the two sides since December 1993, when Burnley recorded a 4-1 victory in the FA Cup, while Rochdale have not overcome the Clarets since September 1991.

Burnley EFL Cup form:
  • W

Burnley form (all competitions):
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • L

Rochdale EFL Cup form:
  • W

Rochdale form (all competitions):
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • D



Team News

Burnley's Chris Wood in action pictured May 19, 2021© Reuters

Burnley will again be without the services of Dale Stephens and Kevin Long through injury, but the Clarets did not pick up any fresh concerns during their league clash with Arsenal on Saturday.

Dyche will make changes to the side that started against the Gunners, with Wayne Hennessey, Nathan Collins, Phil Bardsley, Aaron Lennon and Jack Cork all in line to start against Rochdale.

There could also be spots in the final third of the field for Jay Rodriguez and Matej Vydra, with the likes of Ashley Barnes and Chris Wood set to drop out for the Clarets.

As for Rochdale, head coach Stockdale is also set to make changes from the side that started the 1-1 draw with Mansfield in the league on Saturday afternoon.

Jeriel Dorsett had to be replaced at the interval of the League Two fixture, so it would not be a surprise if he were unavailable for this match, with James McNulty in line to start.

There should also be a spot in the XI for Abraham Odoh, who started the previous round against Shrewsbury but was a substitute during Saturday's league affair with Mansfield.

Burnley possible starting lineup:
Hennessey; Bardsley, Collins, Mee, Pieters; Lennon, Brownhill, Cork, McNeil; Vydra, Rodriguez

Rochdale possible starting lineup:
Coleman; Taylor, O'Connell, McNulty; O'Keeffe, Morley, Dooley, Keohane; Odoh, Beesley, Cashman


SM words green background

We say: Burnley 2-0 Rochdale

Burnley have found it difficult to pick up results in the Premier League this season, but the Clarets should have too much for Rochdale on Tuesday, and we are expecting the hosts to progress without any real drama.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burnley win with a probability of 43.2%. A win for Rochdale had a probability of 30.7% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Burnley win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.9%) and 2-0 (7.63%). The likeliest Rochdale win was 0-1 (8.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.41%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Burnley would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Burnley vs Rochdale

Burnley
75.0%
Draw
10.0%
Rochdale
15.0%
100
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Chris Wood celebrates with teammates after scoring for Burnley against Crystal Palace in the Premier League on November 23, 2020
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