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Dortmund logo
Champions League | Group Stage
Dec 2, 2020 at 8pm UK
Signal-Iduna-Park
Lazio logo

Dortmund
1 - 1
Lazio

Guerreiro (44')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Immobile (67' pen.)

Preview: Borussia Dortmund vs. Lazio - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Champions League clash between Borussia Dortmund and Lazio, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Borussia Dortmund host Lazio in the Champions League on Wednesday, with the German side assured of qualification to the knockout stages for a third successive season should they avoid defeat.

Lazio, meanwhile, require a win to be certain of competing in the knockout stages for the first time since the 1999-00 campaign, but should Zenit St Petersburg beat Club Brugge in the other match in Group F, both Dortmund and the Italians will progress regardless of their result against each other.


Match preview

Borussia Dortmund's Jadon Sancho celebrates scoring against Club Brugge in the Champions League on November 24, 2020© Reuters

Dortmund were hugely impressive in their second successive 3-0 victory over Brugge last week.

Erling Braut Haaland scored a brace to make it six goals for the Norwegian striker in only four days, with England international Jadon Sancho's sensational free kick adding gloss to the convincing win, moving them five points clear of their opponents in third place with only two matches remaining.

Having lost 2-1 at home to FC Koln in the Bundesliga at the weekend, Lucien Favre may be tempted into resting players against Lazio in order to focus on Saturday's trip to Eintracht Frankfurt.

However, it may be a case of wrapping up qualification and top spot in the group by beating their forthcoming opponents before that comes into the 63-year-old's thinking, especially having lost 3-1 to the Italians in the reverse fixture.

Lazio head coach Simone Inzaghi pictured on November 4, 2020© Reuters

Lazio were equally impressive in another 3-1 victory, with Ciro Immobile and Marco Parolo giving the Italians a commanding lead during the first half of last week's fixture against Zenit.

However, veteran striker Artem Dyzuba struck back to give the Russians hope, before Immobile sealed his side's victory with a brace, taking Lazio four points clear of Brugge in Group F with only two matches remaining.

Given they are competing in the group stages for the first time since the 2007-08 season, progressing to the knockout stages would be a tremendous achievement for Simone Inzaghi and his side, even if the Rome-based club were arguably handed a favourable group.

However, the former Italy international will not allow his players to get ahead of themselves, especially with a final matchday showdown with Brugge still to come. A first defeat in this season's competition at Dortmund on Wednesday would turn that last fixture into a decider for both teams if the Belgians avoid defeat to Zenit.

Borussia Dortmund Champions League form: LWWW
Borussia Dortmund form (all competitions): WWLWWL

Lazio Champions League form: WDDW
Lazio form (all competitions): WDDWWL


Team News

Lazio centre-back Luiz Felipe pictured in December 2019© Reuters

Favre has plenty of options to choose from against Lazio, with only Reinier (coronavirus) and Marcel Schmelzer (knee) ruled out of action for his side.

The Dortmund boss may be tempted to rest Haaland, with the 20-year-old requiring protection from physical overload, but will likely look to get the job done on Wednesday before making a string of changes against Zenit next week should his side manage to do so.

Inzaghi, meanwhile, is also missing two players in the shape of Luiz Felipe (ankle) and Vedat Muriqi (unknown).

Former Liverpool midfielder Lucas Leiva was rested in Saturday's dismal 3-1 defeat at home to Udinese, with the Brazilian likely to come back into the starting XI in order to protect the back three and fellow former Liverpool player Pepe Reina.

Borussia Dortmund possible starting lineup:
Burki; Meunier, Akanji, Hummels, Guerreiro; Witsel, Dahoud; Sancho, Reus, Hazard; Haaland

Lazio possible starting lineup:
Reina; Patric, Hoedt, Acerbi; Lazzari, Parolo, Lucas, Alberto, Marusic; Immobile, Correa


SM words green background

We say: Borussia Dortmund 3-1 Lazio

We can envisage both sides posing each other problems in offensive areas, but ultimately Dortmund possess the more dangerous attackers and the more reliable defence.

Favre's side should have enough about them to get the job done and qualify as winners of the group, leaving Lazio looking over their shoulders at matters in Brugge.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 2.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 2.5:data


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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 58.52%. A draw had a probability of 20.9% and a win for Lazio had a probability of 20.58%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.54%) and 1-0 (8.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.5%), while for a Lazio win it was 1-2 (5.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood.


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Group A

TeamPWDLPTS
QBayern651016
QCopenhagen62228
3Galatasaray61235
4Man Utd61144

Group B

TeamPWDLPTS
QArsenal641113
QPSV62319
3Lens62228
4Sevilla60242

Group C

TeamPWDLPTS
QReal Madrid660018
QNapoli631210
3Braga61144
4Union Berlin60242

Group D

TeamPWDLPTS
QReal Sociedad633012
QInter Milan633012
3Benfica61144
4Salzburg61144

Group E

TeamPWDLPTS
QAtletico642014
QLazio631210
3Feyenoord62046
4Celtic61144

Group F

TeamPWDLPTS
QDortmund632111
QPSG62228
3AC Milan62228
4Newcastle61235

Group G

TeamPWDLPTS
QMan City660018
QRB Leipzig640212
3Young Boys61144
4Red Star60151

Group H

TeamPWDLPTS
QBarcelona640212
QPorto640212
3Shakhtar63039
4Antwerp61053


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