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Bayern logo
DFL-Supercup | DFL Supercup
Sep 30, 2020 at 7.30pm UK
Allianz Arena
Dortmund logo

Bayern
3 - 2
Dortmund

Tolisso (18'), Muller (32'), Kimmich (82')
Hernandez (66')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Brandt (39'), Braut Haaland (55')

Preview: Bayern Munich vs. Borussia Dortmund - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's DFL-Supercup clash between Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund, including team news and predicted lineups.

Bayern Munich have the chance to add more silverware to their collection on Wednesday evening when they take on Borussia Dortmund in the DFL-Supercup at the Allianz Arena.

Hansi Flick's side have won four major honours already this year, but they lost to Dortmund in this fixture last season and enter the game on the back of a heavy defeat.

This match will be staged behind closed doors, which is a first for the competition, due to the coronavirus infection rate in the state of Bavaria.


Match preview

Bayern Munich celebrate winning the UEFA Super Cup against Sevilla on September 24, 2020© Reuters

Just when it was looking as though Bayern were pretty much invincible, they were sent crashing back down to earth by Hoffenheim in a chastening defeat on Sunday.

Fatigue inevitably played a part in the 4-1 loss at the Rhein-Neckar-Arena, with Robert Lewandowski benched for a league game for the first time in two years.

That defeat ended Bayern's 32-match unbeaten run since last December, a streak that has seen them win the Bundesliga, DFB-Pokal, Champions League and UEFA Super Cup.

Flick will not be too downbeat, with the loss coming three days after being taken to extra time by Sevilla in the Super Cup, but his players have to quickly pick themselves up.

Dortmund also enter this match on the back of a league defeat at the weekend, going down 2-0 to Augsburg on Saturday in what was a hugely disappointing team display.

Erling Braut Haaland celebrates scoring Borussia Dortmund's second goal against Borussia Monchengladbach on September 19, 2020© Reuters

BVB have been second best to Bayern in recent times in terms of major honours, although they did come out on top in the 2019 DFL-Supercup thanks to Paco Alcacer and Jadon Sancho.

That was Dortmund's sixth triumph in this competition and ended a run of three successive victories for Bayern, who are the record seven-time winners and six-time runners-up.

Lucien Favre would of course love to see Lewandowski benched once again, but Flick is expected to go with his strongest possible XI on Wednesday, as will Dortmund.

Consistency is proving to be a major issue for Favre's men, having followed up each of their last three league victories with a defeat.

That has not been a problem for Bayern - the shock loss to Hoffenheim aside - and they will enter this one-off match as favourites to add yet another trophy to their collection.

Bayern Munich form (all competitions): WWL

Borussia Dortmund form (all competitions): WWL


Team News

Bayern Munich striker Robert Lewandowski celebrates winning the Champions League on August 23, 2020© Reuters

Lewandowski is the DFL-Supercup's leading all-time scorer with five goals and will almost certainly replace Joshua Zirkzee in attack on Wednesday.

Leroy Sane has started all three matches for Bayern this season but picked up a knock at the weekend and is unlikely to play a full part here.

That frees up a spot for Champions League final matchwinner Kingsley Coman, while Leon Goretzka is another pushing for a recall in central midfield.

Dortmund, who lost home and away to Bayern in the league last season, could bring in Julian Brandt and Marco Reus on the back of the defeat to Augsburg.

Erling Braut Haaland seems certain to retain his place in attack after scoring two goals in three outings so far this campaign, but Sancho has been ruled out through illness.

Elsewhere, Manuel Akanji should start in defence alongside Mats Hummels and Emre Can due to the injury absence of Lukasz Piszczek and Dan-Axel Zagadou.

Bayern Munich possible starting lineup:
Neuer; Pavard, Sule, Alaba, Davies; Kimmich, Goretzka; Gnabry, Muller, Coman; Lewandowski

Borussia Dortmund possible starting lineup:
Burki; Can, Hummels, Akanji; Meunier, Brandt, Witsel, Guerreiro; Reyna, Reus; Haaland


SM words green background

We say: Bayern Munich 2-0 Borussia Dortmund

Bayern may have lost to Hoffenheim at the weekend, but that came on the back of a 23-match winning streak that included an 8-0 win over Schalke 04 in their previous league outing.

With star man Lewandowski restored to the starting lineup, we are tipping Flick's men to overcome Dortmund and gain revenge for their defeat in this fixture 13 months ago.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 2.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 2.5:data

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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 52.58%. A win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 26.33% and a draw had a probability of 21.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.42%) and 2-0 (6.42%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 (6.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.84%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.


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Bayern Munich celebrate winning the UEFA Super Cup against Sevilla on September 24, 2020
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